MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-04-08T00:29:26
The high energy electron flux is at high (1e3 pfu) levels, with a steady decline in diurnal peaks expected over the next four days in the absence of any significant geomagnetic enhancements. However, the electron flux is forecast to remain above the high threshold throughout.
Corresponding electron fluence values are forecast to stay above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and close to the Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) at the start of day 1 (08 April). A decline is then forecast through days 2 to 3, in line with REFM expectations.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-04-08T00:29:26 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 40% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 30% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 20% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 20% |