Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-09T00:20:02

The high energy electron (greater than 2MeV) flux is currently at high levels but with a steadily declining diurnal peak. This pattern is likely to continue over the next four days, but with sharper reductions possible during any significant geomagnetic enhancements.

The corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence is starting the period below the Active threshold, and is likely to remain below Active for much of the forecast period. This decreasing trend is is supported by the Met Office REFM, despite the model currently over-estimating fluence values.