Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-16T00:02:33

It is relatively unlikely that either of the expected coronal holes that flank the forecast period are capable of delivering Active 24-hour integrated fluence. The complicating factor on the electron forecast is therefore the relatively high uncertainty as to whether Earth receives a glancing blow from a CME in this forecast period. Because any CME may be expected between days one and two, 'error bars' increase after a suitable lag from later on day two and on day three. Bookending coronal hole activity is unlikely to play a major part in the forecast.