MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-15T00:02:46
The high energy electron flux is most likely to remain at predominantly moderate levels in the near-term, but with a rising trend once the possible high speed stream and potential CME have passed, with High flux levels likely to be reached during the peak of the diurnal cycles from day 3 onwards. As a consequence, late in the forecast period the fluence may reach Active levels, but confidence is low regarding this.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-03-15T00:02:46 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 10% |