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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-15T00:02:46

The high energy electron flux is most likely to remain at predominantly moderate levels in the near-term, but with a rising trend once the possible high speed stream and potential CME have passed, with High flux levels likely to be reached during the peak of the diurnal cycles from day 3 onwards. As a consequence, late in the forecast period the fluence may reach Active levels, but confidence is low regarding this.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-03-15T00:02:46
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 20% 1%
Day 2 20% 1%
Day 3 40% 5%
Day 4 60% 10%