MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-08T00:20:26
The electron flux is currently at high levels, and continues to show a gradual decline in peak values. This is expected to persist during the next 4 days, although some brief more notable reductions are possible during any isolated geomagnetic activity. The associated fluence is therefore expected to remain at Active levels during day 1 and day 2, with a chance of falling below this level by the end of day 3, although with decreasing confidence. This is supported by persistence from the previous rotation, and above the forecast by REFM, which is seen as reducing electron fluence values too soon.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-03-08T00:20:26 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |