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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-03-07T00:18:20

The electron flux is currently at high levels, and expected to see only a gradual decline in peak values during the next 4 days, although some brief reductions are possible during any isolated geomagnetic activity. With no significant features within the forecast period, the associated fluence is also expected to remain at Active levels throughout, although with decreasing confidence by day 4. This is supported by persistence from the previous rotation, and above the forecast by REFM, which is seen as reducing electron fluence values too soon.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-03-07T00:18:20
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 1%
Day 2 90% 1%
Day 3 80% 1%
Day 4 60% 1%