MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-05T00:16:14
The current high levels (above 1000 pfu) of high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) are expected to show a declining trend through much of the forecast period, although possibly increasing again after day 3 (7th) after anticipated coronal hole 73 high speed stream connection.
Corresponding electron fluence values are currently above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but should also show a declining trend through this period, with an increasing likelihood of falling below threshold values after day 2.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-02-05T00:16:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 10% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |