Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-04T00:05:01

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be above the Active threshold for much of the forecast period, dropping only below during the diurnal minima. Fluence levels are likely to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for much of the period, although connection to small coronal holes may knock it back at times, and so confidence levels are not high in the forecast. This is broadly supported by the REFM output, which has forecast levels remaining above the 1e8 integrated pfu Active level. The 27-day recurrence suggests levels will be above the Active threshold on Day 1, but then decline slowly. However, the solar wind persistence model shows solar winds were higher on this rotation, which suggests the fluence will remain higher for longer. Indeed the fluence has risen more strongly on this rotation. A rise above the Very Active threshold is possible, but considered unlikely with around a 10-20% chance.