Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-02-03T00:05:19

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be above the Active threshold for much of the forecast period, dropping below during the diurnal minima. Fluence levels are likely to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for much of the period, although strong connection to coronal hole 71 may cause it to fall, hence reducing confidence in the forecast. The flux has risen strongly following the ongoing high speed stream. This increase occurred more quickly than on the previous rotation. This explains why the REFM recurrence is also showing a rise above the threshold more quickly than on the previous rotation. The REFM forecast for Days 2 and 3 is slow to catch up, while the observation-weighted Day 1 output is showing a reasonable forecast. With the diurnal peak rising above 10000 pfu there is a low, but rising possibility that the fluence will also rise to the Very Active 1e9 integrated pfu threshold.