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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-04T00:26:29

The arrival of the fast wind of coronal hole 62 during day 1 is expected to gradually increase the high energy Electron flux values observed at GEO, similar to those observed on the previous solar rotation. Whilst both REFM and also the potential for a any geomagnetic activity suggests that this is likely to be a gradual process at first, this will lead to the associated fluence levels climbing through the period. Consequently Active electron fluence levels will become increasingly possible by day 3, and likely by day 4.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2019-01-04T00:26:29
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 30% 1%
Day 3 40% 1%
Day 4 60% 1%