Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-03T00:42:04

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux will remain at low to moderate levels today and tomorrow (3 and 4 Jan) but then is expected to increase from day 3 (5 Jan) to moderate to high levels levels, under the influence of the HSS from coronal hole 62 and the wind reaching 500 or even 600 km/s at times. 

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence will start below the High threshold, and will have an increasing trend later in the forecast period, due to the increase in high energy electron flux. However, because of the expected enhanced geomagnetic activity later in the period, this is likely to delay the fluence breaching the High (1e8pfu) threshold until beyond this forecast period.