Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-02T00:49:18

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux has been at moderate to high levels for the past few days, but is now showing a general declining trend as the solar wind speed declines. The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is expected to remain at mainly moderate levels until day 4 (4 Jan) when an increase in activity to high levels in the diurnal maximum is anticipated due to enhanced solar winds. Given the onset of the next high speed stream on day 3 (3 Jan) enhanced geomagnetic activity is likely to suppress activity.

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence will start below the High threshold, and will have an increasing trend later in the forecast period, possibly exceeding the High threshold (5e8 pfu) later on day 4 (5th).