Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-03T00:07:59

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux at GEO currently remains at background levels. This is expected to rise during the next 24hours, to become moderate to high due to the ongoing effects of the high speed stream of coronal hole 53. The associated electron fluence will rise in response, with a chance of reaching Active levels by day 2 and then persisting into day 3 and 4. This is supported by persistence, where the electron fluence had a delayed rise from the high speed stream onset on the previous rotation, to become Active by the end of the equivalent day 1.  However on this occasion, the high speed stream appears weaker, and also REFM suggests only a gradual rise. This has led to a reduced risk of reaching Active levels, with a slightly later onset, most likely during day 2.