MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-26T00:04:29
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 Mev) is expected to remain at mainly background levels. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout. This is reflected by the REFM recurrence, which indicates low levels through the coming week and probabilities of a few percent at most. The forecast model is also predicting low levels over the next three days, and this agreement raises confidence in the low fluence levels persisting.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-11-26T00:04:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 3% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |