MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-26T00:12:14
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background to moderate levels, and is expected to remain so through much of the forecast period, but perhaps reaching moderate to high levels on day 4 (29th) in response to enhanced solar winds as Earth connects to a positive high speed stream from late on day 3 (28th).
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but with a rising trend on day 4 (29th) in response to any increased flux.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-12-26T00:12:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |