MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-25T00:10:56
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at near background levels through to day 3 (27th). On day 4 (28th) stronger solar wind speeds may result in some increase in Electron levels, perhaps exceeding the high, 1000 pfu, threshold. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is forecast to remain well below the Moderate (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through to day 3 (27th). On day 4 there is a chance it will exceed the 1e8 integrated pfu threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-12-25T00:10:56 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |