Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-01T00:13:17

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux has been at moderate to high levels for the past few days, but is now showing a general declining trend as the solar wind speed declines.  The flux is expected to remain at mainly moderate to high levels for today (1st Jan) and tomorrow (2nd Jan) but with the gradual overall declining trend continuing, and is expected to drop to background to moderate levels for day 3 (3rd Jan) and day 4 (4th Jan), especially if enhanced geomagnetic activity is observed following the onset of the next high speed stream. 

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence has recently fallen below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), having been just above the threshold for the previous 24 hours, and is expected to continue to show a declining trend during the forecast period, and is most likely to remain below the Active threshold.