MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-02T00:09:44
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 Mev) has been at background levels for several days, and is expected to remain at background levels today (2nd Dec), but is then expected to rise from tomorrow (3rd Dec) onward as the high speed stream becomes fully established and the risk of geomagnetic storming subsides, perhaps reaching high levels (above 1000pfu) by day 3.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence has been well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for several days, and is expected to remain so today, but is then expected to rise steadily from tomorrow onward in response to the increasing flux, with an increasing risk of reaching the Active threshold later in the forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-12-02T00:09:44 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 10% |