Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-01T00:11:53

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 Mev) has been at background levels for several days, and is expected to remain at mainly background levels during today and tomorrow (1st and 2nd Dec), but may then begin to increase during days 3 and 4 (3rd and 4th Dec) once the high speed stream is fully established and the risk of geomagnetic storms subsides slightly.

The corresponding 24-hour fluence has also been well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for several days, around the order of 1e6 integrated pfu, and is expected to persist well below the Active threshold today and tomorrow, but is then likely to rise in response to increasing flux, with an increasing risk of reaching the Active threshold.