Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-08T00:18:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 Mev) is currently at background levels. However, with a high speed stream now established at Earth, electron counts should steadily increase, although some temporary redistribution is likely associated with any increased geomagnetic activity, especially on day 1 (8th). Flux levels almost reached moderate levels through the diurnal maximum on 7th Dec, and this is expected to occur through the forecast period, with an increasing likelihood of rising above the high threshold (1000 pfu).

Corresponding electron fluence is expected to show a rising trend through the period, with an increasing chance of reaching active levels (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) from day 2 (9th Dec).