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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-08T00:13:58

The high energy electron flux is forecast to remain at the current moderate to high levels until the expected CIR later on day 2 (9th) and following high speed stream from coronal hole 46 brings increased geomagnetic activity and significant electron re-distribution. However, electron counts may recover for a time later in the period as geomagnetic activity reduces again. The current active levels of 24 hour integrated fluence are expected to lag the anticipated reduction in flux, but likely to fall below the active threshold by day 3 (10th).

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-11-08T00:13:58
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 20%
Day 2 80% 10%
Day 3 30% 5%
Day 4 10% 1%