Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-09T00:11:54

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is likely to persist above Active levels at the peak of the diurnal cycle on Day 1, and possibly Day 2, then fall below. The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to persist above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) on Day 1, but with lower chance on Day 2 to 3. There is the possibility of a strong rise on Day 4 as the influence of the high speed stream begins to wane and allows the fluence levels to respond. This is reflected in the 27-day recurrence, which suggests levels will be above Active for a day or two, then decline. The forecast REFM suggests a decline on Day 2, which is possible.