Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-10T00:13:29

The 24-hour integrated electron fluence is running around a decade below last rotation at present, with previous peaks near 2e9pfu now nearer 2e8 - both prior to the influence of the current coronal hole being felt.

It has already been discussed that extensive geometry changes in the coronal hole since October perhaps lend less confidence to 27-day persistence than usual, however the extent of recovery after the initial geomagnetic activity was limited on last rotation, with 2e9 prior- becoming 7e7 post-coronal hole.

Assuming the current activity is sufficient to bring electron populations down in the first place, any subsequent recovery is expected to be limited - interrupted further by a possible second peak in solar wind speeds on Monday 12 November.