Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-11T00:17:17

High energy electron fluence levels have now fallen below the Active (1e8 24 hour integrated pfu) level with the associated flux at mostly background levels. Whilst there is some potential for charging of the Van Allen belts as the high speed stream of CH46 continues to establish itself, the distorted nature of the coronal hole suggests some variability in wind speed and ongoing, albeit low level, geomagnetic activity. This will help to keep flux and fluence levels suppressed through the period. Furthermore, persistence suggests that fluence levels are likely to remain below the Active threshold, with only a 10-20% chance of exceeding it for much of the forecast period.