MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-12T00:34:20
High energy electron fluence levels are currently below the Active threshold (1e8 24 hour integrated pfu), but are now on a steady rising trend. The associated electron flux has risen more sharply and has is expected to peak above the alert/high threshold (1000 pfu) today (11th). Flux and fluence levels are expected to continue to rise over the next few days, then eventually start to wane as the high speed stream influence diminishes. The electron flux is expected to diurnally peak above the high threshold through Days 1 to 4 (12th to 15th), with the associated fluence reaching or just exceeding the Alert threshold as the forecast period progresses.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-11-12T00:34:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 5% |