Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-13T00:18:57

High energy Electron flux levels remain generally at moderate values, with only occasional diurnal peaks reaching high levels. However Earth remains embedded within the high speed stream originating from negative polarity coronal hole 46, bringing persistently enhanced solar winds. This could lead to some increase in electron flux over days 1 and 2, and an associated response to the fluence levels, which is currently suggested by REFM.

Despite this, with no significant enhancement observed as of yet from CH46, any forthcoming enhancement is expected to be notably less than REFM suggests, such that it is now looking less likely that Active fluence levels will be breached within the forecast period. Furthermore, CH46 is due to rotate around the west limb within the next couple of days, leading to the solar wind environment returning to background, and electron flux and fluence levels also decaying during days 3 and 4.