Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-13T00:07:02

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at moderate to high levels in the past 24 hours, with a peak value of 2450pfu at 11/1920UTC.  With declining solar winds for the next couple of days and no significant geomagnetic activity expected, the high energy electron flux is expected to vary between moderate and high levels throughout the forecast period, perhaps with a slight overall fall later in the period if solar winds rise again at this time. 

The corresponding 24-hour fluence has risen steadily in the past 24 hours, breaching the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) at 12/0300UTC. The fluence is now expected to remain just above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for most of the forecast period, but is unlikely to approach the Very Active threshold (1e9 integrated pfu).  Fluence levels may fall below the Active threshold later in the period in response to any falls in flux.