MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-12T00:08:23
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at moderate to occasionally high levels, with the high threshold (1000 pfu) being breached during the peak of the diurnal cycles, especially days 3 and 4 (Monday 14th and Tuesday 15th January).
The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, but with an increasing trend towards the end of the forecast period under the weak influence of the high speed stream from CH66.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-01-12T00:08:23 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |