MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-13T00:01:48
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mainly low levels in the forecast period. The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is therefore also expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout. The fragmented an relatively weak nature of coronal hole 66 is not expected to be sufficient to drive large increases in electron populations, with this supported by both persistence and REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-01-13T00:01:48 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |