MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2019-01-06T00:27:54
High energy electron flux levels are currently increasing in response to the elevated solar winds from coronal hole 62. On the previous rotation, peak electron flux levels gradually increased after coronal hole onset, and a similar progression is expected on this occasion, as supported by REFM. Whilst some transitory reductions are still possible, High levels are expected by day 2. This will to an increasing potential for the associated fluence level to build up to be Active, most likely from the end of day 2 onward.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2019-01-06T00:27:54 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |