MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-12-07T00:09:40
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 Mev) will start at background levels, then increase to moderate levels from tomorrow (8th) once the high speed stream is fully established, and possibly reach High flux levels at the peak of the diurnal cycle during days 3 and 4 (9th and 10th).
The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is currently well below the High threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), and is expected to remain below the High threshold throughout the forecast period, despite a slight rising trend through days 3 and 4 (9th and 10th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-12-07T00:09:40 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |