Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-07T00:27:46

The high energy electron flux is currently high, and expected to remain at around these levels for much of the period,  This has led to Active electron fluence levels developing, and these should persist at least until the first half of day 3, albeit with a gradually decreasing trend during day 2 and day 3.  With the solar wind speed now falling to near 400km/s, and peak electron flux values likely to be reached on day 1, it is now considered unlikely for the Very Active fluence levels to be reached. Whilst these levels are suggested by REFM at the time of issues, these have not been realised, with a gradual decline following in the model. This supports the general declining trend that is expected by day 2.

Later on day 3, and during day 4 geomagnetic activity from the arrival of the CIR ahead of CH46/- is likely to reduce electron flux levels, such that the chance of Active fluence levels is notably reduced on day 4. However this is likely to be a transient reduction, with flux levels rising later in the day.