Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-06T00:31:11

The Earth remains within an enhanced solar wind environment, due to the fast wind emanating from coronal hole 44/+. This is leading to high energy electron flux levels at GEO to persist at high levels, and the associated fluence to gradually rise. This is expected to soon rise above the Active (1e8 24 hr integrated pfu) level on day 1, and then likely persist at this level through the period. 

On the previous rotation, this coronal hole lead to Very Active fluence levels developing approximately 30 hours after the Active fluence level was breached. Despite the delayed occurrence of the high speed stream on this rotation, similar solar winds have been observed and hence a similar progression is likely, with the greatest risk of Very Active fluence levels developing on day 2. Whilst the high speed stream is then expected to gradually subside, persistence also suggests that these Active, perhaps very Active levels will then continue through the period.

Unfortunately REFM is currently unreliable, as it has yet to account for the late onset of the HSS, however it does indicate the expected rise in fluence levels within the next 24 hours.