Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-05T00:08:19

The high energy electron flux and 24-hour integrated fluence are currently both at ambient background levels, with further attenuation expected in the current Minor Geomagnetic Storm conditions, however this should recover strongly once this subsides.

Current REFM output is considered to be too damped, and a much more marked increase is expected in electron counts, to that point that crossing the 24-hour Active fluence threshold is possible late on day one and expected on day two. Given the late arrival of the current high speed stream, the peak speed may be lower, and as such the chances of exceeding the Very Active threshold are consequently less likely, perhaps a Slight Chance around the middle of the week.