Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-06T00:01:31

Current Normal to Moderate (i.e. less than 1000pfu) high energy electron flux levels are expected to continue in the immediate term, meaning the chances of exceeding Active 24-hour integrated fluence are very low at first.

The onset of coronal hole 34 on Sunday is likely to have a short-term reducing effect on electron populations seen at GOES 15, however the resurgence that should follow will make it Likely that 'Active' levels are eventually reached into the new working week, with a chance of 'Very Active' - given the expected intensity of the high speed stream. The expected long (roughly two-day) period of elevated geomagnetism is the reasoning behind the large lag time between the high speed stream's arrival and the response in electrons.

REFM is felt to be perhaps a little optimistic in its persistence in a trend near 1e7 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1 through the coming three days, although the bulk of the expected response does fall outside its three-day forecast range.