MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-29T00:02:26
The electron flux at GEO has remained mainly below the high threshold through the period after some geomagnetic activity earlier on the 28th caused some flux to escape. There have only been short periods just into the high threshold (1000pfu). This flux, integrated over the 24hour period, has resulted in reduced flux. With no major features (CMEs or Coronal Hole fast winds) anticipated through the next 4 days, these levels of flux are expected to be maintained, leading fluence levels likely staying below the 1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1 Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-09-29T00:02:26 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |