Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-30T00:15:39

The high energy electron flux has stablised at a new lower magnitude oscillation in the past day, with this reached in the wake of a solitary Active Kp interval early on 28 September.

Confidence in the electron forecast for the period is lower than is typical, firstly because of the uncertainty involved with skirting the northern polar coronal hole, but also because of possible glancing incidence of a CME around 01 October. Should either of these events occur to any significant degree, the electron flux will respond in kind with an initial decrease followed by a resurgence.

The potential effect on the 24-hour integrated fluence becomes more significant with time, with probabilities creeping upwards towards midweek, although still more likely than not to remain below Active.