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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-01T00:19:58

The high energy electron flux has remained below the High threshold during the last 24 hours, but only just as a weak connection to the northern crown coronal hole has led to a slight increase in overall values. Mainly moderate flux levels are expected to persist through the period, but occasionally reaching High levels during the diurnal maximums.

The corresponding high energy electron fluence is expected to remain below the High threshold, but confidence decreases through the forecast period due to uncertain CME and weak high speed stream influences.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-10-01T00:19:58
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 20% 1%
Day 3 30% 1%
Day 4 40% 1%