Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-24T00:04:09

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) at GEO is on an upward trend as anticipated, following the recent high speed stream from coronal hole 28, with high to very high diurnal peaks expected in the forecast period. This will be reflected in the corresponding 24-hour fluence, which is expected to remain above the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with a chance of reaching very active fluence levels by days 3 or 4 (26th or 27th), although this is lower confidence at present.

Current REFM data highlights the rising trend, with fluence levels remaining above the active threshold through the next four days, potentially reaching the very active threshold.