MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-25T00:02:36
The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) at GEO is currently fluctuating between moderate and high levels. This pattern expected to continue through the next 4 days, but with a sustained peak at high flux levels probable later in the period. Corresponding fluence values are currently above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and are expected to remain at these levels in the absence of any significant geomagnetic activity.
Based on persistence and the lack of other modifying factors the forecast is for continuing Active fluence levels through the next four days, with an increased chance of Very High (1e9 integrated pfu) fluence levels later in the forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-09-25T00:02:36 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 20% |
| Day 3 | 90% | 30% |
| Day 4 | 90% | 40% |