Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-18T00:01:56

The electron flux is likely to remain above the Active 1000 pfu threshold for much of the period, especially during the diurnal maxima, possibly reaching Very Active 10000 pfu at times. However, confidence levels decrease later in the period. This will be reflected in the corresponding 24-hour fluence with above Active levels (1e8 integrated pfu) most likely at first, and lower chance of rising above Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) at times. The REFM recurrence suggests a gradual decline later in the period, while the 3-day forecast now suggests a rising trend following the hiatus of the past 24-hours. The figures given above reflect reducing confidence later in the period.