Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-19T00:15:53

The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) has shown a significant rise in the past 24 hours, exceeding the high threshold (1000pfu) for the first time since 30th July.  With elevated solar winds expected throughout the forecast period, flux levels are likely to remain mainly high, but with occasional temporary drops to background levels during any enhanced periods of geomagnetic activity, especially tomorrow (20th) as the next high speed stream first arrives. However flux levels are likely to soon recover to mainly high levels following any temporary drops.

The corresponding 24-hour fluence has recently shown a rapid rise in response to the increased flux, and exceeded the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) at 18/2100UTC for the first time since 29th July.  The fluence is expected to continue to show a general rising trend in response to elevated flux levels, perhaps with temporary minor falls in response to any periods of reduced flux, but most likely remaining above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the forecast period, with a small but increasing risk of approaching the Very Active threshold (1e9 integrated pfu) towards the end of the forecast period.