MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-12T00:08:31
The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels, and has been for several days, however it is expected to rise slightly today (12th), to vary between background and moderate levels for the rest of the forecast period, in response to slightly elevated solar winds.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), currently around 1e6 integrated pfu, but may rise slightly in the coming days in response to elevated flux levels, but is expected to remain well below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-08-12T00:08:31 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |