MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-13T00:07:36
The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) is expected to increase slightly today (13th) to vary between background and moderate levels for the rest of the forecast period, perhaps dropping to background levels on day 4 (16th) in any enhanced geomagnetic activity.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is likely to rise in response, but is expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-08-13T00:07:36 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |