MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-14T00:26:35
The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) at GEO is expected to remain at background to moderate levels throughout the forecast period.. Corresponding high energy electron fluence is forecast by the REFM model to reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by day 4. However there is a forecast for increased geomagnetic activity on days 3 or 4, which could impact the fluence levels.
The fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold on days 1 and 2, with a slight chance of exceeding the threshold on days 3 and 4.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-07-14T00:26:35 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |