Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-07T00:29:13

The slightly elevated solar wind speeds over the last 24-hours are considered insufficient to increase the electron flux at GEO. Coronal hole 06 is forecast to connect with the Earth on day 3, although this again is likely to give a relatively weak high speed stream. The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) is therefore forecast to be at mainly either moderate or background levels through the next 4 days, although brief peaks above the high (1000pfu) threshold may occur through the diurnal cycle. 

Corresponding 24-hour electron fluence values are well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, As no significant increase in electron flux values are forecast, the fluence is expected to remain below the threshold throughout the forecast period as suggested by the MOSWOC REFM model and 27-day recurrence.