Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-06T00:30:29

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO is currently at moderate levels and is expected to remain below the high threshold on day 1 due to recent enhanced geomagnetic activity. The slightly elevated solar wind speeds should decline through day 2. The electron flux should therefore be at moderate, occasionally high values through days 1-3 (06-09 July). There may then be a more marked reduction in values on day 4, as a potentially Earth-directed CME may produce enhanced geomagnetic activity.

Corresponding 24-hour electron fluence values, are also expected to follow a declining trend in line with the reduced flux values and stay below the Active threshold throughout the 4-day period.