Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-06T00:08:10

The high energy electron flux at GEO is likely to persist above the Active level for much of the period, but during the early hours of 5th June the flux has come down quite a bit from recent days. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is likely to remain above Active level (1e8 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1) but with a higher chance than recent days of dropping below threshold (30-40%) later in the week. Very active (1e9) now looks unlikely to be breached following the recent reduction in flux. The Met Office REFM model is now starting to show signs of this reduction in the forecast, but forecast fluence values remain overdone.