Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-07T00:14:16

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to be above the Active threshold during the diurnal cycles during this four-day period in response to the current high speed stream. The corresponding high energy electron fluence levels will likely continue to steadily rise to reach a peak around Day 3 (9 May).

The REFM output forecasts a strong response to the current high speed stream throughout the period. However, the likely forecast geomagnetic activity could disrupt the flux levels at geosynchronous orbit at times especially during Days 1 and 2 (7 and 8 May), which reduces confidence levels. As geomagnetic activity settles down then there is higher confidence of electron flux and fluence steadily increasing in activity.