Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-08T00:17:27

The current high speed stream should provide a supply of electrons to the Van Allen belts, keeping flux levels elevated, although further enhancements to geomagnetic activity could briefly moderate flux levels.  However, as the risk of enhanced geomagnetic activity begins to decline later in the forecast period, flux levels will tend to increase while solar winds remain elevated.

Therefore, high energy electron flux levels are expected to show an overall rising trend, and will likely be at mainly high levels (above 1000pfu) for much of the forecast period, with an increasing chance of diurnal peaks reaching very high levels (above 50000pfu). This pattern is supported by persistence data. 

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to show a similar rising trend through the forecast period, remaining above the Active threshold throughout, and likely to peak above the Very Active threshold (1e9 integrated pfu) during the next few days. This is also supported by persistence data.